Will Jerome Powell say “Balance of Risk”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Balance of Risk” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 68% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.

68%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jerome Powell

Balance of Risk

Probability
68% · n=3
Settled
3/3 (100%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 8 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, April 29, 2026 · Apr 29, 2026In transcript

…rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, March 18, 2026 · Mar 18, 2026In transcript

…rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 4:13In transcript

…rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, December 10, 2025 · Dec 10, 2025In transcript

…elevated. In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, October 29, 2025 · Oct 29, 2025In transcript

…elevated. In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided…

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 15, 2025Balance of RiskKalshiYes
Sep 23, 2025Balance of RiskKalshiYes
Aug 24, 2025Balance of risksKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Balance of Risk”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Balance of Risk” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Balance of Risk” next time?
68%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Balance of Risk’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/balance-of-risk (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=balance%20of%20risk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP