Will Jerome Powell say “Gold”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Gold” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

18%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

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Jerome Powell

Gold

Probability
18% · n=5
Settled
1/5 (20%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

MATT EGANreporterFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 41:38In transcript

…for that answer. If I may follow up—as I’m sure you’ve noticed, gold and silver prices have experienced historic gains of late. And I’m wondering…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

HOWARD SCHNEIDERreporterFOMC press conference, October 29, 2025 · Oct 29, 2025In transcript

…To the degree you are relying on private data that isn’t the gold standard or that you’re relying on your own surveys or the Beige…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, July 30, 2025 · Jul 30, 2025 · 1:28:29In transcript

…that. But at the same—we really need—the government data really is the gold standard in data, and we need it to be—you know, to be…

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · settled no

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Mar 19, 2026GoldKalshiNo
Dec 2, 2025GoldKalshiNo
Oct 25, 2025GoldKalshiNo
Oct 15, 2025GoldKalshiYes
Sep 23, 2025GoldKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Gold”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Gold” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Gold” next time?
18%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Gold’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/gold (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=gold · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP