Will Donald Trump say “Autism / Autistic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Autism / Autistic” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 30, 2025 (40%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Autism / Autistic
- Probability
- 47% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…devastating to any country. So, when Nick showed us that, for example, autism services, which was supposed to be $1 billion, had now gotten to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Autism / Autistic |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Autism / Autistic |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | No |
| May 21, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | No |
| May 11, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 30, 2025 | Autism / Autistic | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Autism / Autistic”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Autism / Autistic” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 30, 2025 (40%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Autism / Autistic” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Autism / Autistic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/autism-or-autistic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=autism%20%2F%20autistic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP