Elon Musk: Posts, week ending Oct 4, 2026
In the week ending Oct 4, 2026, Elon Musk posted 1 of the 12 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | Yes | ≈22 | 22 | 94%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | ≈10 | 12 | 5%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Texas | No | ≈2 | 2 | 59%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | ≈0 | 0 | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Video game / Videogame | No | ≈0 | 0 | 34%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Sam / Altman | No | ≈0 | 0 | 13%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | No | ≈0 | 0 | 3%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | ≈0 | 0 | 3%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported | No | ≈0 | 0 | 3%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tweak | No | ≈0 | 0 | 3%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT | No | ≈0 | 0 | 2%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | ≈0 | 0 | 2%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownPosts by @elonmusk on X, via Polymarket's XTracker (reposts included: counts are approximate) · The posts
Counted from 222 posts by @elonmusk, Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. XTracker does not flag reposts or quotes, so other accounts' text is included: these counts are approximate. Post text is used for counting only and is not reproduced here.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/elon-musk:2026-10-04:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=elon-musk:2026-10-04:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP