Will Elon Musk say “OpenAI / Altman”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “OpenAI / Altman” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market (18%), most recently on Aug 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 35¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
OpenAI / Altman
- Probability
- 22% · n=11
- Settled
- 2/11 (18%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “OpenAI / Altman”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “OpenAI / Altman” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market (18%), most recently on Aug 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “OpenAI / Altman” next time?
- 22%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘OpenAI / Altman’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/altman-or-openai (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=altman%20%2F%20openai · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP