Will Elon Musk say “Never”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Never” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026 (60%), most recently on Jul 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Never
- Probability
- 57% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…know, with some pretty much age at the same rate. I I've never seen someone with with an old left arm and a young right…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Never |  Polymarket | Yes | ≈1 (settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Never | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Never | Polymarket | Yes | ≈2 (settled yes · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Never | Polymarket | Yes | ≈2 (settled yes · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Never | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Never”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Never” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026 (60%), most recently on Jul 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Never” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Never’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/never (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=never · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP