Will Elon Musk say “Border / Borders”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “Border / Borders” at 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026 (22%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Border / Borders
- Probability
- 23% · n=9
- Settled
- 2/9 (22%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Border / Borders |  Polymarket | No | ≈5 (settled no · our count of 5 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | ≈3 (settled no · our count of 3 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | ≈0 (settled yes · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | ≈0 (settled yes · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Border / Borders”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “Border / Borders” at 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026 (22%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Border / Borders” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Border / Borders’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/border (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=border · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP