Elon Musk: Earnings call, Aug 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Elon say during SpaceX Earnings Call?
Markets
17 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | Yes | 69%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cursor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Order of Magnitude | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Satellite | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starbase | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 32%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grok | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Optimus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Artemis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Colossus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Consciousness | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ISS / International Space Station | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Merge / Merger | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXELONMENTION-26AUG04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP