Will Elon Musk say “Grok”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Grok” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (33%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 75¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Grok
- Probability
- 43% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Grok”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Grok” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (33%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Grok” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Grok’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/grok (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=grok · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP