Will Elon Musk say “Sam / Altman”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Elon Musk said “Sam / Altman” at 1 of 10 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 9, 2026 (10%), most recently on Aug 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 9% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Sam / Altman
- Probability
- 9% · n=10
- Settled
- 1/10 (10%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sam / Altman |  Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈4 (settled no · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈1 (settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | Yes | ≈0 (settled yes · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sam / Altman | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Sam / Altman”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Elon Musk said “Sam / Altman” at 1 of 10 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 9, 2026 (10%), most recently on Aug 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Sam / Altman” next time?
- 9%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Sam / Altman’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/altman-or-sam (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=altman%20%2F%20sam · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP