Will Elon Musk say “China”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “China” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 13, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 49¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
China
- Probability
- 46% · n=9
- Settled
- 3/9 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…be producing more chips than we can turn on. Ex- except for China. China China's China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. They're building 100…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | China |  Polymarket | Yes | ≈6 (settled yes · our count of 6 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | China | Polymarket | Yes | ≈1 (settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | China | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | China | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | China | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | China | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | China | Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jan 23, 2026 | China |  Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| May 13, 2025 | China | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “China” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 13, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “China” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP