Will Elon Musk say “Mexico”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Mexico” at any of the 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 3% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 8 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Mexico
- Probability
- 3% · n=8
- Settled
- 0/8 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…can take the basically a small corner of Utah Nevada Nevada, New Mexico. [clears throat] Obviously wouldn't want it all in one place, but I'm…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mexico |  Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Mexico”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Mexico” at any of the 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Mexico” next time?
- 3%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Mexico’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/mexico (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=mexico · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP