Will Elon Musk say “Mars”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Mars” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 30¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Mars
- Probability
- 24% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, uh to the moon, to Mars, eventually to other star systems. And uh I know I think we…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Mars”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Mars” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Mars” next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Mars’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/mar (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=mar · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP