Will Elon Musk say “Genius”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Genius” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=1, from prior), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
27%from prior · n=1Next: Posts window, Oct 25, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Oct 23, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Genius
- Probability
- 27% · n=1
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Genius |  Polymarket | Yes | ≈1 (settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Genius”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Genius” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Genius” next time?
- 27%, from the model (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Genius’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/genius (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=genius · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP