Will Elon Musk say “Order of Magnitude”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Elon Musk said “Order of Magnitude” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 4, 2026.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Order of Magnitude
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Order of Magnitude |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Order of Magnitude”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Elon Musk said “Order of Magnitude” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Order of Magnitude” next time?
- 73%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Order of Magnitude’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/order-of-magnitude (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=order%20of%20magnitude · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP