Will Elon Musk say “AI / Artificial Intelligence”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “AI / Artificial Intelligence” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 75¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Probability
- 46% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So, with uh robotics and AI, um th- this this is really the path to abundance for all.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | AI / Artificial Intelligence |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 27, 2025 | AI / Artificial Intelligence |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “AI / Artificial Intelligence”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “AI / Artificial Intelligence” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “AI / Artificial Intelligence” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘AI / Artificial Intelligence’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/ai-or-artificial-intelligence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=ai%20%2F%20artificial%20intelligence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP