Will Elon Musk say “Texas”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Texas” at 8 of 16 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Texas
- Probability
- 38% · n=16
- Settled
- 8/16 (50%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Texas |  Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈1 (settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈2 (settled yes · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈4 (settled yes · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈2 (settled yes · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈4 (settled yes · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | No | ≈1 (settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈4 (settled yes · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈1 (settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | ≈1 (settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Texas”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Texas” at 8 of 16 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Texas” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Texas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/texa (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=texa · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP