Will Elon Musk say “FSD / Full Self Driving”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “FSD / Full Self Driving” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Jan 22, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
FSD / Full Self Driving
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Uh yes, the Tesla full self-driving software we we update it sometimes once a week. Um and um recently [clears throat] some of the insurance…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | FSD / Full Self Driving |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “FSD / Full Self Driving”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk said “FSD / Full Self Driving” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “FSD / Full Self Driving” next time?
- 63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘FSD / Full Self Driving’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/fsd-or-full-self-driving (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=fsd%20%2F%20full%20self%20driving · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP