Will Elon Musk say “Neuralink”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Neuralink” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Neuralink
- Probability
- 34% · n=8
- Settled
- 3/8 (38%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Neuralink |  Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Neuralink | Polymarket | No | ≈1 (settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Neuralink | Polymarket | Yes | ≈1 (settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Neuralink | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Neuralink | Polymarket | Yes | ≈2 (settled yes · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Neuralink | Polymarket | Yes | ≈3 (settled yes · our count of 3 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Neuralink | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| May 13, 2025 | Neuralink | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Neuralink”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Neuralink” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Neuralink” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Neuralink’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/neuralink (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=neuralink · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP