Will Elon Musk say “IPO”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “IPO” at any of the 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 4% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
4%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
IPO
- Probability
- 4% · n=7
- Settled
- 0/7 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | IPO |  Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | IPO | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | IPO | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | IPO | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | IPO | Polymarket | No | ≈1 (settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | IPO | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | IPO | Polymarket | No | ≈1 (settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “IPO”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “IPO” at any of the 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “IPO” next time?
- 4%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘IPO’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/ipo (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=ipo · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP