Donald Trump: Speech, Nov 15, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | Yes | 75%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA | Yes | 61%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pennsylvania | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| We Won | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rig/Rigged | No | 62%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| God | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Steal/Stole | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Victory 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mail-in | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 7%n=48 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-speech-after-election-is-called · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP