Will Donald Trump say “China” 10+ times?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” 10+ times at 9 of 23 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 25, 2024 (39%), most recently on Apr 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=23, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (10+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
China 10+ times
- Probability
- 40% · n=23
- Settled
- 9/23 (39%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 1 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…David Purdue won that election. Really? Who is now your ambassador to China and doing very he's very happy. It was a shocker and we're…
…fake news says, "Why does he spend time on the white?" Well, I don't like having the head of China come into the White House
…in the United States of America. We don't want you going to China. We don't want you going to Japan. We don't want you going…
…say that a very important element is the fact that Russia and China have not participated or participated in a much smaller way than they…
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
Every settled listing
newest first · 23 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | China 10+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Apr 10, 2025 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Feb 18, 2025 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Nov 3, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Nov 2, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 28, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 26, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 25, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 23, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 22, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 19, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 18, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 15, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 12, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 11, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 9, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 6, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 5, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 4, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 3, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 28, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 27, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 25, 2024 | China 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “China 10+ times”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” 10+ times at 9 of 23 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 25, 2024 (39%), most recently on Apr 10, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “China 10+ times” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=23). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘China 10+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/china-10plus (CC BY 4.0)
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