Donald Trump: Monthly window, Jul 31, 2026

By Jul 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

53 known appearances
39 of 53 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 1, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump. Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

24 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 13

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Genius Yes2525✓66%n=18 from settlement history–
Affordable / Affordability Yes1524✓48%n=69 from settlement history–
Messi / Ronaldo Yes99✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Marxist / Marxism Yes44✓47%n=9 from settlement history–
Muscle Yes35✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Green New Scam Yes33✓57%n=21 from settlement history–
Pathetic Yes22✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Presidential Walk of Fame Yes22✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Visa Yes22✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Golden Dome Yes25✓19%n=39 from settlement history–
Future President Yes11✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Movie Star Yes11✓40%n=10 from settlement history–
Cosmos Yes–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Six Seven No22✗52%n=41 from settlement history–
Gulf of Trump No–0–52%n=4 from settlement history–
Breaking News No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Best of Trump No–0–50%n=2 from settlement history–
Allahu Akbar No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
East Wing No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Praise Be To Allah No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Soaking Wet No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
State of the Art No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Heart Attack No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Uranium No–0–20%n=27 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-july-20260629200910760 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP