Will Donald Trump say “Breaking News”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Breaking News” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Breaking News
- Probability
- 46% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 rallies, 3 remarks); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…beautiful than when they put them in. But we had a little breaking news last night. And it was just revealed that one of my…
…I'm in this beautiful this beautiful Air Force One and we have breaking news all the time every two minutes. I don't know where the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Breaking News |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (39 of 53 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Breaking News | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Breaking News”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Breaking News” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Breaking News” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Breaking News’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/breaking-new (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=breaking%20new · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP