Will Donald Trump say “Gulf of Trump”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gulf of Trump” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2026 (60%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Gulf of Trump
- Probability
- 46% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gulf of Trump |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (39 of 53 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Gulf of Trump | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Gulf of Trump |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Gulf of Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Gulf of Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Gulf of Trump”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gulf of Trump” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2026 (60%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Gulf of Trump” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Gulf of Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gulf-of-trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gulf%20of%20trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP