# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-07-31 (settled) · 24 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-july-20260629200910760 · as_of 2026-10-26T13:45:03Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-07-31 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-07-27..2026-07-30 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-july-20260629200910760 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage 39 of 53 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T15:20:02Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Genius	genius	18	13	0.72	YYYYYYnYYn	8	0	0.66	hist	25	25	yes	1	
Muscle	muscle	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.58	hist	3	5	yes	1	
Green New Scam	green new scam	23	15	0.65	YYYYnnnYYn	8	1	0.57	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Breaking News	breaking new	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no		1
Gulf of Trump	gulf of trump	4	3	0.75	YYYn	8	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no		1
Six Seven	six seven	54	15	0.28	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.52	hist	2	2	no	0	
Best of Trump	best of trump	2	1	0.5	nY	8	0	0.5	hist	0	0	no		1
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	69	27	0.39	nnnnnnnYYY	8	1	0.48	hist	15	24	yes	1	
Marxist / Marxism	marxism|marxist	0	0			8	1	0.47	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Messi / Ronaldo	messi|ronaldo	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.46	hist	9	9	yes	1	
Heart Attack	heart attack	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.45	hist	0	0	no		1
Movie Star	movie star	11	3	0.27	nnnYYnnnnn	8	0	0.4	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Uranium	uranium	35	3	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.2	hist	0	0	no		1
Golden Dome	golden dome	46	7	0.15	YnnnnnYYnn	8	0	0.19	hist	2	5	yes	1	
Allahu Akbar	allahu akbar	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	no		1
Cosmos	cosmo	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	yes		1
East Wing	east wing	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	no		1
Future President	future president	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	1	1	yes	1	
Pathetic	pathetic	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	2	2	yes	1	
Praise Be To Allah	praise be to allah	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	no		1
Presidential Walk of Fame	presidential walk of fame	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	2	2	yes	1	
Soaking Wet	soaking wet	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	no		1
State of the Art	state of the art	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	no		1
Visa	visa	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	2	2	yes	1