Donald Trump: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026

By Oct 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

31 known appearances
7 of 31 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump. Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

13 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 3 of 3

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Peanut Yes33✓29%n=22 from settlement history–
Honey Yes22✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Potato Yes11✓38%n=3 from settlement history–
Egg Yes–0–71%n=37 from settlement history–
Cookie Yes–1–52%n=21 from settlement history–
Beef Yes–0–48%n=15 from settlement history–
Ice Cream Yes–0–46%n=2 from settlement history–
Corn Yes–0–46%n=6 from settlement history–
Milk Yes–0–29%n=4 from settlement history–
Burger open–0––new new word, no probability yet37¢ Polymarket
Cake open–0––new new word, no probability yet40¢ Polymarket
Cucumber open–0––new new word, no probability yet36¢ Polymarket
Chicken open–0–39%n=3 from settlement history36¢ Polymarket

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-foods-will-trump-mention-in-october · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP