# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-10-09 · 33 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT09 · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-his-midterm-rally-in-ohio-october-9-vance · as_of 2026-10-25T23:33:22Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-10-09 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT09 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Lima, Ohio originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-his-midterm-rally-in-ohio-october-9-vance (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.
# rows 1-30 of 33 by p · more: offset=30 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	K	50	39	0.78	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.79	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	67	47	0.7	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.74	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	KP	44	30	0.68	YYnnYYYYYY	5	3	0.7	hist	no
Election	election	1	KP	38	22	0.58	YYYYYYYYYY	5	1	0.7	hist	yes
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	1	KP	17	14	0.82	YYYnYYYYYn	5	0	0.68	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	KP	27	13	0.48	YnnYYnYYYY	5	3	0.62	hist	yes
Family	family	1	P	4	4	1	YYYY	5	4	0.58	hist	yes
Social Security	social security	1	KP	6	4	0.67	nYYYYn	5	2	0.58	hist	yes
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	KP	13	7	0.54	YnYnnnYYYY	5	4	0.58	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	K	36	18	0.5	nYYYYYnYYn	5	3	0.53	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	1	K	22	8	0.36	nYYnnYYYYn	5	1	0.52	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	K	46	26	0.57	YYYYYYnYYn	5	3	0.51	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	K	24	16	0.67	nnYnnnYYYn	5	2	0.5	hist	yes
Border	border	1	KP	18	9	0.5	nnYnnnYYnY	5	2	0.5	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	K	48	25	0.52	YnYYYYnnYn	5	3	0.48	hist	yes
Job 10+ times	job#10	10	P	1	1	1	Y	5	2	0.45	hist	yes
Steel	steel	1	KP	4	2	0.5	YYnn	5	0	0.45	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	15	4	0.27	YnnnnnYnYn	5	0	0.39	hist	no
Vivek / Ramaswamy	ramaswamy|vivek	1	K	0	0			5	0	0.38	hist	yes
Small Business	small business	1	K	7	3	0.43	YnYnYnn	5	1	0.37	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	K	32	13	0.41	YnnnnnnnnY	5	3	0.36	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	K	21	10	0.48	YnYnYnnnnn	5	2	0.35	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	K	32	3	0.09	nnnnnnYYYn	5	0	0.35	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	1	K	36	19	0.53	YnnYnnYnnn	5	0	0.33	hist	yes
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	1	K	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	5	2	0.31	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	36	11	0.31	YYnYnnnnnn	5	1	0.25	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	K	46	6	0.13	nnnnnYnnnn	5	0	0.2	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	K	54	9	0.17	nnnnnYnnnn	5	3	0.19	hist	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	1	K	14	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.15	hist	no
Hillary	hillary	1	P	0	0			5	0	0.39	prior	no