# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-07-05 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL06 · as_of 2026-10-27T03:46:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-07-05 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-06-26..2026-07-04 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL06 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after June 29th, 2026 at 8:00am ET and before Jul 6, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 7 of 10 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:49Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 1 appearance since 2026-07-04 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-07-04:rally: the rally video's captions (his turns only) (no_source; needs youtube_client_uas)
# rows 1-25 of 31 by p · more: offset=25 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	93	69	0.74	YYYnYYYnYn	8	1	0.84	hist	7	8	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	110	75	0.68	YnnnYYYYnn	8	2	0.83	hist	6	6	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	28	21	0.75	YYnYYnYYYn	8	1	0.79	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	158	90	0.57	YYnYnnYnnn	8	0	0.79	hist	0	1	yes		1
Hottest	hottest	268	145	0.54	YnYYnYYnYn	8	2	0.76	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	36	26	0.72	YYYnYnYYYY	8	0	0.68	hist	0	0	no		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	42	27	0.64	YYYYnYYYYY	8	0	0.68	hist	0	0	yes		1
Melania	melania	60	38	0.63	YYnYYnnYnY	8	0	0.68	hist	0	0	no		1
50,000	50 000	19	15	0.79	YYYYYnnYnY	8	0	0.67	hist	0	0	yes		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	11	6	0.55	nYnYYYYYnn	8	2	0.66	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	50	21	0.42	nYnYnYYYnY	8	0	0.65	hist	0	0	no		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	49	32	0.65	YnnnnYYYnY	8	0	0.64	hist	0	0	no		1
Newscum	newscum	66	39	0.59	YnnnnYYnnn	8	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	30	18	0.6	nYYnnnYYYY	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	yes		1
Ballroom	ballroom	88	30	0.34	nnYnnYnYYn	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	yes		1
Autism	autism	31	15	0.48	YYnnYnnnnn	8	0	0.55	hist	0	0	no		1
Fraud	fraud	49	19	0.39	YYYYnnnnnn	8	0	0.55	hist	4	9	yes	1	
American Flag Blue	american flag blue	7	3	0.43	nYYnnYn	8	0	0.53	hist	0	2	no		1
Windmill	windmill	51	24	0.47	nnYYnYnYnn	8	0	0.5	hist	0	0	no		1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	84	48	0.57	nnnnYYYnnn	8	0	0.49	hist	0	1	no		1
Epstein	epstein	123	30	0.24	nnnnnnYYnn	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	13	3	0.23	nYnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	16	4	0.25	YYYnnnnnnn	8	0	0.32	hist	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	419	42	0.1	nnnnnnYnnn	8	0	0.31	hist	0	0	yes		1
Uranium	uranium	25	3	0.12	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.28	hist	0	0	no		1