Will Donald Trump say “22”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “22” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 28, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
22
- Probability
- 61% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…1990 So in much less than two years we secured commitments for $22.2 trillion of new investments into the United States of America. the greatest…
right? No. Okay. She promises. We secured commitments for 22. This is a record by five times. 22.2 and they're building plants all over Iowa.…
…of my political career, Tim. That'll be But we secured commitments for 22.2 trillion dollars in new investments coming into the United States. It's the…
…which other countries don't have. We have great growth because of the $22.2 trillion coming in. We have tremendous growth; we have factories and plants…
…than at any point since the start of the war. We're taking 22, 25, 30, 32 and 37 ships out, respectively, every single day, every…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “22”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “22” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 28, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “22” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘22’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/22 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=22 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP