# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-08-23 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG24 · as_of 2026-10-24T00:32:13Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-23 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-11..2026-08-21 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG24 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after August 17, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Aug 24, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 5 of 6 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:43:12Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	107	79	0.74	YnYYnYYYYY	8	2	0.84	4	4	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	152	94	0.62	nnnnnYYYnn	8	1	0.8	0	0	no		1
Landslide	landslide	49	34	0.69	nYYnYnnYYY	8	3	0.74	5	5	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	208	112	0.54	nnnYYYYnnY	8	2	0.74	9	10	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	43	31	0.72	YYYnYYYYYn	8	0	0.72	0	0	no		1
Ballroom	ballroom	103	41	0.4	YYYYYnnnnY	8	4	0.7	28	38	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	50	33	0.66	YYYnYYYnYY	8	0	0.68	0	1	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	38	25	0.66	YYYYYYYYYn	8	1	0.68	1	1	yes	1	
Melania	melania	72	44	0.61	YnnYYYYnYn	8	0	0.67	2	2	yes	1	
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	5	3	0.6	nnYYY	8	2	0.67	8	8	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	63	29	0.46	nYnYYYnYnY	8	0	0.64	0	0	no		1
Ukraine	ukraine	84	45	0.54	nYnnYYnnYY	8	0	0.62	1	1	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	40	19	0.47	YnnnYYYYYn	8	1	0.62	0	1	yes		1
Fraud	fraud	79	31	0.39	nYnYnnnYnn	8	0	0.6	5	6	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	11	6	0.55	YYnnnnYnYY	8	1	0.57	6	6	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	74	42	0.57	nnnYYnYnnn	8	0	0.55	0	0	no		1
Windmill	windmill	65	33	0.51	YYYnYYYnnY	8	0	0.55	0	0	no		1
TikTok	tiktok	61	16	0.26	nnnYYYYYnn	8	0	0.52	0	0	no		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	57	34	0.6	nYnnnnnYnY	8	0	0.51	0	0	no		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	23	11	0.48	YnnnYnnnYY	8	0	0.51	0	1	no		1
JD / Vance	jd|vance	12	3	0.25	nnYnnnYnnn	8	0	0.44	2	21	yes	1	
Soleimani	soleimani	13	6	0.46	YnnnnnYnnY	8	0	0.39	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	29	9	0.31	nnnnnYnnYY	8	1	0.39	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	475	51	0.11	nYnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.36	10	23	yes	1	
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	28	9	0.32	nnnnnnYnnn	8	0	0.34	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	25	6	0.24	nnnnnnYYnn	8	0	0.28	0	0	no		1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	27	6	0.22	nnnnYYnnnY	8	3	0.21	9	12	yes	1	
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	22	3	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.19	0	0	no		1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	17	1	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.17	2	3	yes	1	
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	57	7	0.12	nnnnYYnnnY	8	0	0.16	0	2	no		1
Uranium	uranium	44	3	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.16	0	0	no		1