Will Jerome Powell say “Stock Market”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Stock Market” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 14% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Stock Market
- Probability
- 14% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…consumption and growth coming in the form of wealth effects with the stock market down, in the form of gas prices diverting spending from other…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…are really driving spending right now. They’re backed by home equity and stock market wealth. But lowerincome consumers are really struggling with the accumulation of…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…to consume declines quite dramatically as you reach—as you reach levels of stock market wealth. So the stock market—it would affect spending if the stock…
…a follow-up. This rate cut is coming at a time when the stock market is at or near all-time highs. And some valuation metrics are…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Stock Market |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Stock Market”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Stock Market” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Stock Market” next time?
- 14%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Stock Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/stock-market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=stock%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP