Will Jerome Powell say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 24% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. The temporary shutdown of the federal government likely weighed on economic activity last quarter, but…
…expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector remains weak. The temporary shutdown of the federal government has likely weighed on economic activity in the…
…Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public- and private-sector data that have remained available suggest that the…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP