# Jerome Powell (jerome-powell) · speech 2025-10-15 · 26 words · K k:KXPOWELLMENTION-25OCT15 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:49:06Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-15 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2024-11-07..2025-09-17 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXPOWELLMENTION-25OCT15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jerome Powell says {word} as part of Speech At the National Association for Business Economics, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Pandemic	pandemic	1	4	4	1	YYYY	8	8	0.78	hist	yes
Balance of Risk	balance of risk	1	2	2	1	YY	8	8	0.72	hist	yes
Beige Book	beige book	1	3	2	0.67	nYY	8	1	0.63	hist	yes
Pardon	pardon	1	1	1	1	Y	8	2	0.61	hist	yes
Uncertainty (5+ Times)	uncertainty#5	5	1	1	1	Y	8	6	0.61	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	4	2	0.5	nnYY	8	4	0.6	hist	yes
Restrictive	restrictive	1	2	1	0.5	nY	8	8	0.57	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.45	hist	yes
Credit	credit	1	2	1	0.5	nY	8	3	0.45	hist	yes
Recession	recession	1	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	8	3	0.26	hist	no
Gold	gold	1	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.19	hist	yes
Goods inflation	goods inflation	1	1	0	0	n	8	5	0.19	hist	yes
Probability	probability	1	1	0	0	n	8	3	0.19	hist	yes
Tariff Inflation	tariff inflation	1	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.19	hist	no
Tax	tax	1	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.19	hist	no
Unchanged	unchanged	1	1	0	0	n	8	5	0.19	hist	no
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas	gas|gasoline|natural gas	1	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.17	hist	no
Yield Curve	yield curve	1	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.17	hist	yes
Good Afternoon	good afternoon	1	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	8	8	0.15	hist	no
Consumer Confidence	consumer confidence	1	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.14	hist	no
Projection	projection	1	2	0	0	nn	8	5	0.14	hist	yes
Crypto /Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	5	0	0	nnnnn	8	2	0.13	hist	no
Dot Plot	dot plot	1	3	0	0	nnn	8	1	0.12	hist	no
Median	median	1	3	0	0	nnn	8	4	0.12	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	6	0	0	nnnnnn	8	1	0.1	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	0	0			8	1	0.33	prior	no