FOMC press conference, May 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Powell say during his May 2025 FOMC press conference?
Markets
30 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: role: fed chair Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good Afternoon | Yes | 83%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 83%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Balance sheet | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Balance of risk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Expectation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Projection | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| QT / Quantitative Tightening | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Restrictive | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Credit | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Michigan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fuel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Median | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Consumer confidence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Default | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dot plot | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Egg | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| EU / European Union | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fort Knox | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| R* / R-star / R star | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Real wage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trade war | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yield curve | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Soft landing | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 15%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFEDMENTION-25MAY · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP