Will “R* / R-star / R star” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “R* / R-star / R star” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
R* / R-star / R star
- Probability
- 25% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2025 | R* / R-star / R star |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 17, 2025 | R* / R-star / R star | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “R* / R-star / R star” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “R* / R-star / R star” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025.
- What is the probability “R* / R-star / R star” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 25%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘R* / R-star / R star’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/r-or-r-star (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=r%20%2F%20r%20star · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP