# FOMC press conference (fomc-press-conference) · presser 2025-05-08 · 30 words · K k:KXFEDMENTION-25MAY · as_of 2026-10-24T17:36:53Z
# scope K role:fed-chair · n/y settled before 2025-05-08 · tn/th last 8 presser transcripts 2024-06-12..2025-05-07 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXFEDMENTION-25MAY ({word} = w of K rows): If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says {word} at his May 2025 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Good Afternoon	good afternoon	5	5	1	YYYYY	8	8	0.83	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	5	5	1	YYYYY	8	4	0.83	hist	yes
Recession	recession	3	3	1	YYY	8	5	0.75	hist	yes
Balance sheet	balance sheet	2	2	1	YY	8	4	0.72	hist	yes
Balance of risk	balance of risk	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.68	hist	yes
Energy	energy	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.68	hist	yes
Expectation	expectation	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.68	hist	yes
Michigan	michigan	1	1	1	Y	8	1	0.68	hist	no
Projection	projection	1	1	1	Y	8	5	0.68	hist	yes
QT / Quantitative Tightening	qt|quantitative tightening	1	1	1	Y	8	4	0.68	hist	yes
Restrictive	restrictive	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.68	hist	yes
Bitcoin	bitcoin	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.28	hist	no
Consumer confidence	consumer confidence	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.28	hist	no
Credit	credit	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.28	hist	yes
Crypto / Cryptocurrency	crypto|cryptocurrency	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.28	hist	no
Default	default	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.28	hist	no
Dot plot	dot plot	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.28	hist	no
Egg	egg	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.28	hist	no
EU / European Union	eu|european union	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.28	hist	no
Fort Knox	fort knox	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.28	hist	no
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas	gas|gasoline|natural gas	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.28	hist	no
R* / R-star / R star	r|r star	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.28	hist	no
Real wage	real wage	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.28	hist	no
Trade war	trade war	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.28	hist	no
Yield curve	yield curve	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.28	hist	no
China	china	2	0	0	nn	8	2	0.25	hist	no
Soft landing	soft landing	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.25	hist	no
Trump	trump	5	0	0	nnnnn	8	0	0.15	hist	no
Fuel	fuel	0	0			8	0	0.47	prior	no
Median	median	0	0			8	4	0.47	prior	no