What is the probability Donald Trump says “Navy” next time?

55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Donald Trump say “Navy”?

Name: Donald Trump: “Navy” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Navy” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

55%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 10:01 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Navy

Probability: 55% · n=2
Settled: 2/2 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 51:04In transcript

…of that. Think of that. And you know why? Because of our navy. Because we have a blockade where Iran can't come in or go…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 43:45In transcript

…you know today was announced in the Wall Street Journal that our navies unbelieved the blockade more oil came out of the Hormone Strait over…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 9:59In transcript

As a result of Operation Epic Fury, all 159 ships of their navy are now lying at the bottom of the sea. Likewise, their air…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Oct 6, 2026	Navy	Kalshi	Yes
Sep 17, 2026	Navy	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Navy”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Navy” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Navy” next time?: 55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Navy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/navy (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=navy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP