Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 5, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say this week (September 29 - October 5)?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Sep 29, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
13 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 63%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tylenol | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Omar / Crockett | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Escalator / Teleprompter | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Department of War / Secretary of War | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 16%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Anarchist | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Death penalty | No | – | 0 | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Peanut | No | – | 0 | 27%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-september-29-october-5 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP