What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Affordable / Affordability” next time?

39%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Affordable / Affordability”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Affordable / Affordability” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Affordable / Affordability” at 12 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 20, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jan 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No keynotes among them yet.

39%from settlement history only · n=24Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no no yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 84¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 06:28 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Affordable / Affordability

Probability: 39% · n=24
Settled: 12/24 (50%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Lisa Bova-Hiatt, CEO, NYCHAotherMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…of dollars of investment on behalf of thousands of residents, all while ensuring permanently affordable rent in perpetuity and connecting residents to valuable social services.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…approximately generates 12,000 tons of waste and recycling. And in just the first six months of this year, City Hall has financed 12,000 affordable homes.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…I think that the governor has made clear time and time again what her vision is. It's a vision of a more affordable New York.

Council Speaker Julie MeninotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…helps New Yorkers access medical treatment or legal assistance, or it means they can locate affordable housing that they can actually afford to live in.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Appears on Univision's ¡Despierta América! · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…If you're a family in the Bronx waiting for the construction of affordable housing, these ballot proposals are about whether or not that housing construction…