Zohran Mamdani: Speech, Jan 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during the Swearing-in Ceremony for FDNY Commissioner?
Markets
10 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMS / EMT | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woman / Women | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bronx | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New Era | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Safe / Safety / Safer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender / Gay | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JAN07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP