# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-09-18 · 34 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP18 · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-his-midterm-rally-in-iowa · as_of 2026-10-24T03:01:20Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-09-18 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP18 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-his-midterm-rally-in-iowa (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.
# rows 1-29 of 34 by p · more: offset=29 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	K	43	32	0.74	YnYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.66	hist	yes
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	1	K	12	10	0.83	YYnYYYYYnY	5	0	0.65	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	60	40	0.67	YnnYYYYYYY	5	4	0.57	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	KP	18	13	0.72	nYYYYYnnYn	5	2	0.54	hist	no
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	1	K	0	0			5	2	0.53	hist	no
Invest / Invested / Investment	invest|invested|investment	1	K	1	1	1	Y	5	3	0.51	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	KP	38	24	0.63	YYnnYYYYnn	5	3	0.51	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	K	41	21	0.51	nYYYYnYYnY	5	3	0.51	hist	yes
Election	election	1	KP	32	16	0.5	nnnYnYYYYY	5	1	0.51	hist	yes
Small Business	small business	1	K	5	3	0.6	YnYnY	5	1	0.5	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	K	15	9	0.6	YnYYYnYnYn	5	2	0.48	hist	yes
Ass	ass	1	P	11	5	0.45	YnnnYYnnYY	5	0	0.46	hist	no
Christian	christian	1	P	1	1	1	Y	5	2	0.45	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	K	26	12	0.46	YYYnnYYnnn	5	3	0.45	hist	no
California	california	1	K	20	11	0.55	nYYnnnYnnY	5	1	0.44	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	1	KP	31	18	0.58	YnnnnYnnYn	5	0	0.4	hist	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	1	K	22	12	0.55	YYnnYnnYnn	5	1	0.4	hist	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	KP	8	3	0.38	nYnYnYnn	5	4	0.38	hist	no
Usha	usha	1	P	11	5	0.45	nYYYYnnnYn	5	2	0.37	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	K	20	7	0.35	nnYnnnYYnn	5	3	0.35	hist	yes
Joe / Biden 3+ times	biden|joe#3	3	P	0	0			5	4	0.33	hist	yes
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	1	K	17	4	0.24	nnYnnnYYnn	5	1	0.32	hist	yes
President / Trump 5+ times	president|trump#5	5	P	0	0			5	5	0.32	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	33	7	0.21	nYnnnYnnnn	5	1	0.27	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	K	47	8	0.17	nnnnYnYnnn	5	3	0.25	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	KP	13	2	0.15	nYnnnnnYnn	5	1	0.24	hist	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	1	K	9	1	0.11	nnYnnnnnn	5	0	0.22	hist	no
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech	free speech|freedom of speech	1	K	5	0	0	nnnnn	5	0	0.2	hist	no
America First	america first	1	K	40	5	0.12	nnnnYnnnnn	5	0	0.18	hist	no