Will JD Vance say “Iran” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Iran” 3+ times at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 13, 2026 (20%), most recently on Apr 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Iran 3+ times
- Probability
- 29% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to remember why are we doing this. Number one, it's so that Iran never has a nuclear weapon. And number two, what we're doing right…
…the bat. First of all, I think the president's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people. Last night, 12.5…
…incredible job. And then finally, just to give an update on the Iran negotiation, the Iran situation. I just talked to the president very briefly…
Thank you, Mr. Vice President. So, we are seeing — regarding Iran, we are seeing the protests in Iran these days. The cities are begging…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Iran 3+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) |  Kalshi | No |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Iran 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Iran” 3+ times at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 13, 2026 (20%), most recently on Apr 13, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Iran 3+ times” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Iran 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/iran-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=iran%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP