Will JD Vance say “Common Sense”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Common Sense” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Common Sense
- Probability
- 29% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is between crazy people who are trying to rig the game and common sense people who you may have disagreements with from time to time,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Common Sense |  Kalshi | No |
| May 15, 2026 | Common Sense | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Common Sense”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Common Sense” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 15, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Common Sense” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Common Sense’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/common-sense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=common%20sense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP