Will JD Vance say “Democrat” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Democrat” 3+ times at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 27, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Democrat (3+ times)
- Probability
- 45% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you just look back to the last administration, I mean, even the Democrats in the room, and I know you guys, if you're being honest,…
…the way, anybody can apply for it. Republicans can apply for it. Democrats can apply for it. As you know, the President of the United…
…say, as a matter of leadership, and I would appreciate if the Democrats would join me on this, let's be honest about the fact that…
…say a few things, then I'll take a few questions. Number one, Democrats say that they care a lot about lowering healthcare costs, and yet…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Democrat (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Democrat (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Democrat (3+ times) | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 26, 2026 | Democrat (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
| May 13, 2026 | Democrat (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Democrat (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Democrat (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Democrat” 3+ times at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 27, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Democrat (3+ times)” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Democrat (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/democrat-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=democrat%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP