Will JD Vance say “Socialist / Socialism”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Socialist / Socialism” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

32%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no no
Streak
not said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=socialism%20%2F%20socialist

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Socialist / Socialism

Probability
32% · n=6
Settled
2/6 (33%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 0 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 20, 2026Socialist / SocialismKalshiNo
Oct 17, 2026Socialist / SocialismKalshiNo
Sep 9, 2026Socialist / SocialismPolymarketNo
Sep 9, 2026Socialist / SocialismKalshiNo
Aug 31, 2026Socialist / SocialismKalshiNo
Aug 13, 2026Socialist / SocialismKalshiYes
Aug 5, 2026Socialist / SocialismKalshiYes

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Socialist / Socialism”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Socialist / Socialism” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Socialist / Socialism” next time?
32%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Socialist / Socialism’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/socialism-or-socialist (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=socialism%20%2F%20socialist · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP