Will JD Vance say “Protest / Protester”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Protest / Protester” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Protest / Protester
- Probability
- 29% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…an ounce of sympathy when it comes to that disproportionate sentencing? Is people who voted for Donald Trump and participated in the January 6th protest.
…over an ICE agent who paid for the brick and who told protesters to show up and engage in violent activity against our law enforcement…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Protest / Protester |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Protest / Protester | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Protest / Protester | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Protest / Protester”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Protest / Protester” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Protest / Protester” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Protest / Protester’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/protest-or-protester (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=protest%20%2F%20protester · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP