# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-07-26 (settled) · 30 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:40:09Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-07-26 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-07-21..2026-07-24 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after July 20th, at 10:00am ET and before Jul 27, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 8 of 9 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:48:09Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	100	72	0.72	nYYnnYnYnn	8	3	0.83	6	6	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	33	24	0.73	nYYYYnYnYn	8	2	0.8	2	2	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	128	82	0.64	nnYYnYYnYY	8	4	0.79	5	5	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	177	95	0.54	nYYnnYYnnn	8	2	0.73	7	7	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	39	28	0.72	nYnYYYYnYY	8	1	0.68	2	2	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	46	30	0.65	nYYYYYYnYY	8	2	0.68	4	5	yes	1	
Gianni / Infantino	gianni|infantino	7	6	0.86	nYYYYYY	8	2	0.66	4	4	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	33	21	0.64	nnnYYYYYYY	8	1	0.64	2	2	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	56	24	0.43	YYnYnYYnYn	8	1	0.64	5	5	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	92	34	0.37	nYnYYnYYYY	8	3	0.63	7	7	yes	1	
Melania	melania	66	40	0.61	nYnYnnYnnY	8	1	0.62	1	1	yes	1	
Trump Account	trump account	6	5	0.83	YYYYnY	8	1	0.61	11	16	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	69	40	0.58	nnYYnnnnYn	8	1	0.6	3	3	yes	1	
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	52	32	0.62	nnYYYnYnnn	8	0	0.58	0	0	no		1
ISIS	isis	8	5	0.62	nYYYnYYn	8	0	0.57	0	0	no		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	15	8	0.53	YYYYnnYnYn	8	0	0.57	0	0	no		1
Fraud	fraud	56	23	0.41	nYnnnnnYYY	8	2	0.54	2	2	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	73	39	0.53	YnnYnYnnYn	8	0	0.52	2	5	yes	1	
TikTok	tiktok	55	12	0.22	YnnnYnnnnY	8	1	0.46	7	7	yes	1	
Windmill	windmill	56	27	0.48	YnYnnnnYYY	8	2	0.45	10	12	yes	1	
American Flag Blue	american flag blue	10	3	0.3	nYYnnYnnnn	8	0	0.45	0	0	no		1
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	24	8	0.33	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.41	1	1	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	443	46	0.1	nnnnnnYnnn	8	1	0.35	2	2	yes	1	
Stupid Question	stupid question	19	4	0.21	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.26	0	0	no		1
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	16	3	0.19	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.26	0	0	no		1
Uranium	uranium	32	3	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.22	0	0	no		1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	13	1	0.08	nnYnnnnnnn	8	0	0.22	0	0	no		1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	21	3	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.17	6	6	yes	1	
Golden Dome	golden dome	44	7	0.16	nnYnnnnnYY	8	0	0.15	0	1	no		1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	51	4	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.13	1	1	yes	1