# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-05-01 · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY01 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:28:19Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-01 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY01 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches Dinner , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	73	56	0.77	YYYYYnYYYY	1	1	0.76	no
Trillion	trillion	89	61	0.69	nnnYnYYYYY	1	1	0.7	yes
Biden	biden	235	160	0.68	YYYnnYnnYn	1	1	0.68	yes
Tariff	tariff	163	105	0.64	nnnYYYnYnn	1	1	0.66	yes
Democrat	democrat	128	87	0.68	YYYYnnYYYY	1	1	0.65	yes
Iran	iran	95	60	0.63	nYYnnYnnYn	1	1	0.63	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	29	19	0.66	YYYYnYYnYn	1	1	0.57	yes
China	china	147	92	0.63	nnnYnnYnnY	1	1	0.57	yes
Landslide	landslide	4	3	0.75	YYYn	1	0	0.56	yes
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	4	3	0.75	YYYn	1	1	0.55	no
Gulf of America	gulf of america	19	12	0.63	nnnYYYYYYn	1	1	0.55	yes
Hottest	hottest	210	109	0.52	YYnnYnnnYn	1	1	0.55	yes
Stock Market	stock market	66	36	0.55	YYYnYnYnnY	1	1	0.54	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	28	15	0.54	nYYYnnYnnn	1	1	0.53	yes
Transgender	transgender	105	59	0.56	nnnYYYnnnn	1	1	0.52	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	24	14	0.58	YnYYYYnYnn	1	1	0.5	no
American Dream	american dream	9	5	0.56	YYYYYnnnn	1	0	0.5	no
Investment / Invested	invested|investment	29	13	0.45	YnYnnnnnnn	1	1	0.48	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	23	12	0.52	nYYYYnnYnn	1	1	0.46	yes
November 5	november 5	11	5	0.45	nYnnYYYnnn	1	1	0.46	no
DeSantis	desantis	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.46	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	135	53	0.39	nnnYnnnnYY	1	1	0.44	no
Save America Act	save america act	9	3	0.33	YYnnnnnnY	1	0	0.41	no
Fraud	fraud	25	9	0.36	YYnYnnnYnn	1	0	0.35	no
Ballroom	ballroom	57	17	0.3	nYnnYnnYYn	1	0	0.34	yes
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	351	38	0.11	nnnnYnnnnn	1	0	0.24	no