Will Donald Trump say “Baby”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Baby” at 4 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 9, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Baby
- Probability
- 32% · n=10
- Settled
- 4/10 (40%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…But the dancing is not presidential. And she hates in particular the weightlifting. You know where the woman the woman gets caught. Baby, come on.
…away. This will be the best ever. But Space Force was my baby and it's doing unbelievable. It's number one anywhere in the world. And…
…where terrorists funded by Iran tortured, mutilated and killed 1200 very innocent civilians, including dozens of Americans and many babies, babies, little tiny, beautiful babies.
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Baby |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 31, 2026 | Baby | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | Baby | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Baby | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Baby |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Baby | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Baby | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 30, 2025 | Baby | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 23, 2025 | Baby | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 9, 2025 | Baby | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Baby”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Baby” at 4 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 9, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Baby” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Baby’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/baby (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=baby · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP